Sunday, October 8, 2017

The degradation of Kosasthalaiyar - A story from the skies

The Chennai floods of 2015-16 were devastating to the State Capital Region(SCR) and saw unprecedented flooding of large swathes of the city. In its aftermath, the attention of the civil society rightfully turned on the water bodies in the SCR and its mismanagement. In the recent past, the degradation of Ennore creek and the Kosasthalaiyar river has gained increasing focus in social media and the amonngst the general public. A lot of accusations and counter accusations have been made on the State and Union governments and the various private industries that have cropped up in the region. In this blogpost, I use satellite images of the past 24 years to understand the degradation of this region.

1. Geography

Ennore Creek geography Sat Image credits: Digital Globe Inc

First I would like to layout the geography of the Ennore Creek through this satellite image taken in the month of Sept 2017. 

a) L&T Kattupalli is the shipbuilding yard and container terminal belonging to L&T.
b) NCTPS stands for North Chennai Thermal Power Station (not to be confused with Ennore Thermal Power Station).
c) NTECL (Thermal Power Station of NTPC Taml Nadu Energy Company Ltd).
d) Fly Ash Dump (S) Southern side ash pond closer to NTECL.
e) Fly Ash Dump (N) Northern side ash pond west of Coal and Iron ore terminal.
f) Ennore Port (has multiple coal handling berths, liquid terminal berth, general purpose cargo berth and a container terminal under construction by Adani group.)
g) Coal terminal is operated as Chettinad Coal Terminals led by Chettinad Group.
h) Iron Ore terminal is operated by SICAL led consortium (is envisaged to be converted to a coal terminal).

2. 1994 

I start with the year 1994 when the entire region is mostly untouched by large scale industrial activity. In this image, we can see that the Kosasthalaiyar meanders in parallel to the Ennore coast. The only type of activity seems to be salt pans all over the place in the backwaters and creek. It is unknown as to how the salt pans affected the river flow. They definitely seem to have slowed the river near the mouth. The salt pans though would've definitely acted as buffer during floods and high tides.  

Ennore Creek 1994 Image credits: Google Earth

3. 1997

At this point in time, in the Ennore creek region, the only major industrial activity up and running was the NCTPS. We can see a large ash pond created by the side of the river and fly ash partially deposited on it. The Ennore Port is nowhere to be seen. It is important to note that the first phase of the NCTPS was operational in 1994 and fully completed in 1996.

Ennore 1997 Image Credits: Google Earth

4. 2004


By 2004, satellite images show that the initial phase of Ennore port is complete with captive coal berth for NCTPS and fly ash deposits expanded to another pond. It is important to note that these ponds are mostly on former salt pans and not necessarily on the river itself. Some soil/fly ash deposits could be seen on the Kosasthalaiyar river banks west of Ennore port. This could either be dredged material from port quay or fly ash or simple soil dumps to level land. What is also apparent here is the formation of sandy beach stretch due to the breakwaters.

Ennore 2004 Image Credits: Google Earth

5. 2010

By 2010, new coal and iron ore terminals are under construction smack right through the salt pans and the banks of the Kosasthaliyar river. L&T kattupalli in the north is also under construction. L&T's centre seems to be on barren land, away from the river and not on any water body at the outset. I couldn't draw further conclusions. The coal & iron ore terminals and the associated conveyor belt and rail access definitely pass through the Kosasthalaiyar river banks and at places, over it. We can also see that the fly ash in the Fly ash pond(N) has expanded.

Ennore 2010 Image Credits: Google Earth


6. 2011

By 2011, the state of affairs in the Ennore port region are clear. A HPCL bottling terminal is under construction on reclaimed salt pans south of coal terminals. The associated liquid terminal in Ennore port could also be seen. Construction of NTECL plant south west of it is underway. Fly ash area in the North stays similar.


Ennore 2011 Image Credits: Google Earth

7. 2013

By 2013, two stages of NTECL are under operation alongwith NCTPS. General Cargo(Ro-Ro) berth constructed on barren land in the northern part of port can be seen. Interestingly, fly ash content area goes down in the north ash pond. The breakwater of L&T creates a sandy beach stretch between it and Ennore port.

Ennore 2013 Image Credits: Google Earth

8. 2015

By 2015, fly ash content in north ash pond goes up again. In both 2013 and 2015 images, some soil/ fly ash deposits seen west of NCTPS along Kosasthalaiyar river banks. Rail and road access to expanded Ennore port is provided over these deposits (red circle). 

Ennore 2015 Image Credits: Google Earth

9. 2017

In 2017, fly ash deposit region in the artificial lakes in the north have again expanded. Some deposits seen along Kosasthalaiyar river west of NCTPS. Construction of container terminal(by Adani Group) at Ennore Port is fully underway. At this stage (phase-1), the container terminal by itself doesn't seem to encroach the river. The berths for the terminal are being developed by dredging north western shore of the Ennore port.

Ennore 2017 Image Credits: Google Earth

The master plan of Ennore Port though suggests industrialization and development all through the region around the river and the creek. It is to be seen as to how the buffer between the river, the creek and the port are preserved.

A couple of images related to NTECL. 

In 2005 the land where NTECL is to come up on, has salt pans and an artificially pond for fly ash deposits could be seen. 

NTECL 2005 Image Credits: Google Earth

 In 2016, the same region, NTECL is complete, fly ash could be seen being deposited on the Fly Ash(S) pond now(first image). 

NTECL 2016 Image Credits: Google Earth

Here, I have tried to simply see and interpret the satellite images. The creek even in its original form itself required continuous rehabilitation to protect local ecology and livelihood of the villagers. While, development and industry is welcome, on sensitive areas like this, it is imperative that pollution control and environmental protection measures are carried out to the hilt. With continuous destruction over the past two decades, it has become unidentifiable. I have deliberately avoided attributing blame on individuals, political parties or private players. This neglect seems to have gone through multiple state and union governments with entrenched corrupt bureaucracy and in favor of multiple private players.

What also seems to be apparent is that a sweeping accusation on every industry public/private in the region is also unwarranted. A satellite imagery expert says "Max saving is done by the breakwaters constructed by the L&T and Ennore Port. They have huge potential and really do stop sea waves from harming or damaging the coast". The Ennore stretch is known for its sea erosion issues and this might actually help in reducing its impact. He also concurred on the huge positive impacts of pucca houses that would've come via employment to locals which is necessary to protect from harsh effects of storm and gales. What seems to be missing is the higher priority that needs to be accorded for environmental protection for these projects and huge capital expenditure to use advanced technologies to find innovative solutions. 

Tuesday, September 5, 2017

My Independence Day thoughts

Some thoughts on India's development processes while celebrating 70 years of independence.

The single most important thing we can do to make India better is to stop assessing it's development metrics as a monolith. With respect to economics, human development, industrialization, health and sanitation, education, employment etc, our variances are very vast! We should stop looking at indices like national GDP growth rate, IIP, gross food grain production, overall budget of healthcare etc. Not to forget the single most useless number, national consumer price index (CPI), that is being used as an inflation monitor by RBI. These numbers hold little value when variances are so large.

The 4 slabs of GST rates is not just an outcome of political shadow boxing, but ground realities of the vast systemic economic differences that exist in our country. We ought to go down to district or panchayat level indicators & indices with respect to healthcare, inflation, education, GDP, sanitation, unemployment figures to understand local effects. We ought to analyze the demography through the prism of class, income and economic condition and study the indices of each segment separately not just geographically.

The number of people who get missed by margins of error in even state based indices could run into millions, offset by few high value data points. E.g., A flash transporters strike may not affect a well stocked reliance fresh store that has good food storage facilities but will affect the street vendors in the same area. This in turn affects the corresponding consumer class in that area.

So, let's hope that our macro policy makers and people in general move beyond single point measures  to more sensible ways of measuring national development indicators that takes into account the diverse variances of the country. 

Sunday, September 3, 2017

Of NEET, Patidar & Jat protests, Bhim Army and the fundamental responsibilities of the State

Protests have been erupting across the country on various issues over the years. We've seen the Jat and Patidar protests for reservations in the last couple of years as well as the Bhim army swarming the National capital as well as parts of western UP and Gujarat. Tamil Nadu, moreover, for the last year seems to be in an eternal state of protest for one reason or the other. What ties the suicide of a laborer's daughter in TN, who fought against NEET, to the protests against land acquisition for nuclear power plant in Jaitapur? What ties the Patidar protests in Gujarat and the Jat protests in Haryana to the BJP's landslide victory in UP? The answer to this in my opinion seems to be two fold.

1. The fundamental role of the state is rapidly evolving post May 2014. 
2. The unheard aspirations of huge rural demographics and the information asymmetry that was prevalent earlier is no more with the emergence of social media. 

When PM Modi's BJP was elected to power in May 2014, there was no second questioning about the mandate being a vote of an aspirational India to upward mobility in life. Things like, corruption, appeasement politics of UPA etc were just the final mile mandate converters. But the question lie as to what this aspirational India wanted. The narrative that dominated mainstream media during the campaign period and the early days of NDA-2 was that of a nation making use of it's favorable demographics and economic fundamentals to enable upward mobility and assert itself in the world for it's interests. 

For the first time, economic and foreign policy institutions and think tanks started studying India under Modi as a different animal. The word in vogue was 'Reforms'. Us, the urban educated middle class and upper class wanted reforms to make the govt get rid of it's non performing sectors, reduce massive leakage and mindless subsidies in places where possible and overall, provide a platform for us to compete with the best across the world. Globalization showed us what the world has achieved and what we can if we concentrate on efficient resource and energy allocations. Aadhar linked subsidies, cut in subsidies for petrol, gas, kerosene etc disinvestment in sick PSUs were all results of this. From changing to NITIAayog as a policy based enabler at the centre to rapidly passing environmental clearances for large capital projects across the country, the govt was fulfilling its understood mandate as an enabler of job creation and economic growth. Apparently, this was just one side of the story. 

For the first time in 68 years, the union govt saw it's primary role as an enabler of opportunities rather than an ensurer of welfare for the under privileged. The amount of subsidies in the govt's budget sharply went down. Land acquisition from small owners increased and the instances of big industrialists moving into traditionally untouched spaces (physical and service related) of the underprivileged increased rapidly. While this was seen as minor side effect by the urban dwellers, it hit right through the heart of rural masses. The masses of heartland India didn't necessarily vote for this. They wanted a nanny state, albeit cleaner, in varying degrees. They wanted welfare that was guaranteed by UPA through legislation but never properly implemented. The anti establishment sentiment came from throwing out the obnoxious Lutyens insiders who just sang melodies of welfare and social justice but never understood and implemented it cleanly. The Jat and Patidar protests started when they saw that the role of govt being an enabler was well short of their expectations of a handholder. The bahujans of our country saw the aggregation of state resources away from large scale welfare to privileged sections of society, (who saw themselves as better placed to enable wealth creation and growth) as completely against the ideals of social justice. This explains the farmer suicides, TN methane project protests, the NEET protests, the Bhim Army and JNU protests. 

The urban demography missed this aspect of the 2014 mandate. BJP didn't see it until it lost sorely against the Lohiaites in Bihar and learnt it's lesson. In UP, it shifted decisively to populist politics and the selection of Yogi Adityanath, though had us confounded, resonated well with the rural demography and is the result of this class politics. 

This leads us to a fundamental question. What should be the role of the state in India? Is it's role to ensure social justice and redistribute state's capital and resources to reduce inequality and give opportunities to the millions of underprivileged people? Or is it's role to allocate resources to that sections of society that will maximize output and quality and therefore enable and reward the better performers(whether that is by talent or privilege)? We are at an inflection point where there are millions and millions of people in the aspirational middle class who want the govt as an enabler and yet there are millions and millions of people who depend on state's welfare and affirmative action to move up in life.

It is this question that is being debated and fought on multiple fronts across the country. From the compulsion of Aadhar for subsidies to the forcing of NEET exam on a state. From the large scale allocation of infrastructure projects along the geographical commons (sea coasts and forests) to the conception of Smart cities. From increasing railway ticket costs to providing subsidies to airlines for regional connectivity. The proliferation of social media has decreased the information asymmetry between urban and rural dwellers in India to a large extent and therefore we are going to see more and more protests to this definitive U-turn from welfare politics to free market politics. 

I just hope that each side understand the place and needs of the other to better come up with solutions.

This post is dedicated to the departed soul Anitha who wanted our society to have this debate and fought for it right through the corridors of justice in SC.